Abortion and Unintended Pregnancies

The unending culture war

Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973 and has been the focus of culture wars ever since. In 1978, I worked on future senate majority leader Tom Daschle’s first congressional race in South Dakota. Despite being well ahead in the polls, he almost lost, winning after a recount over Leo Thorsness who had successfully played the right-to-life card. Republicans have used the potent political weapon ever since.

Number of Abortions Dropping

Of course, there were always abortions. But before Roe, they were illegal and dangerous. Today, in many parts of the country legal abortions again are difficult to obtain. According to the Guttmacher Institute, the rate of abortions has now fallen below the level before Roe’s passage.

The question is whehter the decline in the abortion rate over the last 40 years is the result of anti-abortion forces making it more difficult to get abortions or the wider availability of contraceptives and sex education has made unwanted pregnancies more unusual.

The Guttmacher Institute argues that restrictive abortion laws are not driving the decline in abortion rates, noting that the number of abortions are falling nationwide, not just in those states where legal abortions are less easily available. However, it does note that the official numbers may be undercounting abortions as it becomes easier for women to self-administer drugs that end pregnancies, so-called “medical” abortions.

Unintended Pregnancies Also Dropping

According to an article in the New England Journal of Medicine, the rate of unintended pregnancies has been declining over the years, with a precipitous drop beginning in 2008. I don’t know whether this is related to the recession or why that would be the case. There are clear correlations between unintended pregnancies and age (younger women after their teenage years are more likely to become pregnant), income (the poorer you are, the more likely you are to have an unintended pregnancy), and race (Blacks and Hispanics have more unintended pregnancies than whites). In terms of income, the national trend of fewer unintended pregnancies actually did not apply to poorer women before 2008, with the numbers rising, expecially among those below the poverty line.

Anti-Abortion Sentiment Growing

The percentage of Americans who identify as pro-life has grown from a third in 1995 to almost half today, at the same time that pro-choice Americans have dropped from 56% in 1995 to less than half today. Most of the change occurred during the 1990s, with more or less an even split in country in recent years.

Of course, these numbers just show sentiments and don’t get at specific policies. Many of those who identify as pro-life would agree to abortions in cases of rape, incest and danger to the mother and many pro-choice Americans would oppose late-stage abortions in the absence of any of these factors. These nuances are better represented by the following survey results.

Interestingly, according to Gallup, while there’s an even split between pro-live and pro-choice proponents in the United States, only 32% of respondents support overturning Roe while 58% support the decision.

Anti-Abortion Legislation Successful

Pro-life forces are also winning both battles and wars with respect to legislation. State legislatures have passed 100s of abortion restrictions since 2010, even in states with strong pro-choice majorities. Oklahoma is leading the charge while Oregon is the only state with no restrictions at all.

This legislation has been successful in reducing the number of abortion providers by about half over the last 40 years.

Conclusion

With a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, Roe’s days may be numbered. We will soon learn whether it is overturned completely or simply curtailed, permitting the enactment of more legislation by the states limiting the availability of legal abortions without forbidding them entirely. In a post-Roe world, we’ll see an even greater split between those states where legal abortions are readily available and those where they’re not available at all.

It’s possible that the pro-life forces will go too far and lose their political potency, since most Americans favor the availability of abortions under certain circumstances. On the other hand, the debate could go further against abortions. While now the question is whether states are permitted to bar all abortions under the U.S. constitution, pro-life forces could argue that the constitution forbids abortions in all states. Again, this might not be a politically wise stance on their part.